目 录

　　研究阐释党的十九大精神

　　1.孙早 刘李华：资本深化与行业全要素生产率增长——来自中国工业1990-2013年的经验证据

　　2.韩剑 岳文 吴小康：优惠自贸协定、原产地规则与企业技术升级

　　3.张天华 陈博潮 刘宜坤：行政审批制度改革如何缓解企业规模分布扭曲？

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　　新时代发展经济学研究

　　4.杨勇 丁雪 赵奇伟：中国地区宜居度的数量测度与空间效应

　　5.丁杰：绿色信贷政策、信贷资源配置与企业策略性反应

　　6.汪奕鹏　刘洋　陈广汉：老龄化背景下生育政策预期的宏观经济效应——基于长期消息冲击的DSGE分析

　　7.申云　李庆海　杨晶：农业供应链金融信贷的减贫效应研究——基于不同主体领办合作社的实证比较

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　　8.贾玉成 张诚：国家形象对中国OFDI的影响

　　9.全世文：缴税还是捐赠？——环境政策效益评估中的支付工具选择

　　10.康传坤 文强：独生子女与社会经济地位的代际传递

　　

　　扩 展 目 录

　　1.孙早 刘李华：资本深化与行业全要素生产率增长——来自中国工业1990-2013年的经验证据

　　[摘要]本文从资本深化的行业特征、结构及动因三个维度刻画并检验了转型时期资本深化对工业全要素生产率增长的效应，为新常态下促进工业全要素生产率增长、实现增长方式转变提供了理论依据和经验支撑。研究发现：资本密集度高的行业，资本深化对全要素生产率增长的促进作用较低；设备投资占固定资产投资比重的提高，并没有显著增强资本深化对全要素生产率增长的影响；当资本深化由政府政策推动时，资本深化对全要素生产率增长的推动作用较小；国有企业总产值增长率较高的行业，资本深化对全要素生产率增长的正向作用较小，但所有制结构远不是解释全要素生产率变化的最主要理由。本文具有深刻的政策含义：应进一步提高设备投资在固定资产投资中的比重，提升设备的技术含量对资本密集型行业尤为重要；所有制结构改革并不必然要求所有制结构的重大调整，重点应是提高国有企业的效率。

　　[关键词]资本深化；所有制结构；全要素生产率增长；技术进步

　　[作者简介]孙早，西安交通大学经济与金融学院，邮政编码：710061，电子信箱：sunz@mail.xjtu.edu.cn；刘李华（通讯作者），西安交通大学经济与金融学院，邮政编码：710061，电子信箱：liulihua91@163.com。

　　[研究项目]本文得到2019年度教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目“收入不平等对中国长期经济增长影响的研究”（项目编号：19YJA790077）的资助。

　　Capital Deepening and Industry Total Factor Productivity Growth:Empirical Evidence from Chinese Industry 1990-2013

　　Abstract: This paper depicts and tests the effect of capital deepening on TFP growth in the three dimensions, such as the industries’ characteristics, structure and motivation. It provides theoretical basis and empirical support for promoting industrial TFP growth and changing of growth mode under The New Normal. It is found that: the effect of capital deepening is relatively low in promoting the growth of TFP in the industries with high capital density; when the proportion of equipment investment in fixed assets investment increases, the influence of capital deepening on TFP growth is not significantly enhanced; when capital deepening is induced by government policy, it is less effective to promote TFP growth; capital deepening has less positive effect on TFP growth in industries with higher proportion of state-owned enterprises, but ownership structure is far from the main reason to explain TFP Change. The conclusion of this paper has profound policy meaning: the proportion of equipment investment in fixed assets investment should be further improved, and the improvement of equipment technology content is especially important for capital-intensive industries. The reform of ownership structure is not simply to reduce the proportion of state-owned enterprises, it should focus on improving the efficiency of state-owned enterprises.

　　Keywords: Capital Deepening, Ownership Structure, TFP, Technological Progress

　　[责任编辑]赵锐、彭爽

　　2.韩剑 岳文 吴小康：优惠自贸协定、原产地规则与企业技术升级

　　[摘要]在新新贸易理论框架下，通过引入原产地规则限制效应和两种不同生产技术，本文分析了自贸协定下的原产地规则对企业技术升级的影响。结果表明，低技术的出口企业要发展成为利用自贸协定进行出口的高技术企业，存在两条不同的发展路径：一是企业先实现技术升级然后再转变出口方式；二是企业先转变出口方式然后再进行技术升级。企业所处的发展路径不同，原产地规则限制效应对企业技术升级的影响也不同：当只存在要素市场的资源配置效应时，较高的原产地规则限制效应反而有利于企业的技术升级；当同时存在要素市场的资源配置效应和产品市场的利润缩减效应时，较低的原产地规则限制效应将有利于企业的技术升级。从企业技术升级的角度，本文为重新认识企业利用自贸协定的原产地规则提供了新的视角。

　　[关键词]企业异质性；FTA；原产地规则；技术升级

　　[作者简介]韩剑，南京大学商学院，邮政编码：210093，电子信箱：hanj@nju.edu.cn;岳文，江南大学商学院，邮政编码：214122，电子信箱：yuewen406406@163.com；吴小康，南京大学中美研究中心，邮政编码：210093，电子信箱：wooxiaokang@gmail.com。

　　[研究项目]本文获得江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目“全球价值链视角下江苏外贸发展的转型升级研究”（项目编号：2018SJA0816）、国家自然科学基金青年项目“GVC视角下的最适优惠原产地规则研究”（项目编号：71703068）和国家自然科学基金项目“企业异质性、固定成本约束与优惠自贸协定利用：基于FTA利用率的研究”（项目编号：71773048）资助。

　　Preferential Trade Agreement, Rule of Origin and Firm’s Technology Upgrading

　　Abstract: Under the assumption of new-new trade theory, this paper introduces the restrictive effect of rule of origin and two different technology，and studies the influence of rule of origin on firm’s technology upgrading. It concludes that there’s different development path for low technology export firms to become high technology export firms. When firms are in different stage，the effect of ROO restriction is different. If the factor market has room for resource reallocation， more restrictive ROO will be suitable for firm’s technology upgrading. Otherwise, if product market varnishes the effect of profit decreasing, low restrictive ROO effect will benefit firms. This paper provides a new insight for recognizing the rule of origin under free trade agreement.

　　Keywords: Firm Heterogeneity, Free Trade Agreement, Rule of Origin, Technology Upgrading

　　[责任编辑]彭爽

　　3.张天华　陈博潮　刘宜坤：行政审批制度改革如何缓解企业规模分布扭曲？

　　[摘要]企业规模分布变异是经济运行扭曲的重要表现，其分布状态变动是观测行政审批制度改革效果的重要视角。本文以2001年前后的行政审批中心大范围设立作为自然实验，考察行政审批制度改革对企业规模分布的影响。研究发现，在中国企业规模分布帕累托指数普遍偏低的情况下，行政审批制度改革显著提高了企业规模分布帕累托指数，缓解了经济扭曲。但这一影响在不同区域存在较大差异，东西部地区存在显著的优化效应，中部地区的影响并不显著。机制研究表明，行政审批中心的设立一方面通过降低市场准入门槛和改善营商环境，促进了中小企业进入市场；另一方面普遍降低企业的制度性交易成本，且相较于大企业，中小企业获得的“降成本红利”更为明显，从而使得企业规模分布的扭曲得以改善。

　　[关键词]行政审批制度改革；企业规模分布；帕累托指数

　　[作者简介]张天华，华南师范大学经济与管理学院，邮政编码：510006，电子信箱：zhangth1985@gmail.com；陈博潮，华南师范大学经济与管理学院，邮政编码：510006，电子信箱：769594734@qq.com；刘宜坤，华南师范大学经济与管理学院，邮政编码：510006，电子信箱：1468981765@qq.com。

　　[研究项目]本文为国家自然科学基金项目“中国劳动收入份额决定的微观机制:基于转型背景和企业要素收入分配视角的理论和实证研究”（项目批准号：71473089）、广东省自然科学基金项目“交通基础设施建设对企业资源配置效率影响研究”（项目批准号：2017A030313445）的阶段性研究成果。

　　Has the Administrative Examination and Approval Reform Eased the Distortion of the Size of the Enterprise?An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Industrial Enterprises

　　Abstract: The variation of enterprise size distribution is an important sign of economic operation distortion, and its distribution status is an important perspective to observe the effect of administrative examination and approval reform. This paper is based on the extensive extension of the administrative examination and approval center system around 2001 as a natural experiment, and examines the impact of the reform of the administrative examination and approval system on the size distribution of enterprises. The study found that in the case of the generally low Pareto index of Chinese enterprises, the administrative examination and approval reform significantly increased the Pareto index of enterprises and eased economic distortions. However, this effect is quite different in different regions, and there are significant optimization effects in the eastern and western regions, and the impact in the central region is not significant. Mechanism research shows that the establishment of the administrative examination and approval center promotes the entry of SMEs into the market by reducing market entry barriers and improving the business environment. On the other hand, it generally reduces the institutional transaction costs of enterprises, and compared with large enterprises, SMEs The “cost reduction bonus” obtained is more obvious, which leads to an improvement in the size distribution of the enterprise.

　　Keywords: Administrative Examination and Approval Reform, Enterprise Size Distribution, Pareto

　　[责任编辑]赵锐、彭爽

　　4.杨勇 丁雪 赵奇伟：中国地区宜居度的数量测度与空间效应

　　[摘要]本文基于补偿效用原则建立一般均衡模型，测度1998-2016年中国328个地级及以上城市的宜居水平，并选择空间杜宾模型对其影响因素与空间效应进行分析。结果表明：中国地区宜居水平增长平稳，东南沿海地区整体上优于中西部地区，地区宜居水平存在明显的正向空间自相关性；本地产出与消费水平增长能提升本地区宜居水平，固定资产投入、在岗职工和人口数量增加会降低本地的宜居水平，空间间接效应的作用要远大于直接效应，这显示地区宜居水平的实质是城市效率与城市摩擦通过人口流动相互制约的过程。地方政府在制定宜居水平提升政策时，需要考虑地区宜居度的效用补偿特征，根据限制当地宜居水平发展的具体因素有针对性地制定相关措施。

　　[关键词]地区宜居度；效用补偿法；空间自相关；空间杜宾模型

　　[作者简介]杨勇，武汉大学经济发展研究中心，邮政编码：430072，电子信箱：yyayuy@163.com；丁雪，武汉大学经济与管理学院，邮政编码：430072，电子信箱：susuandsnow@163.com；赵奇伟，武汉大学经济发展研究中心，邮政编码：430072，电子信箱：zhaoqiwei2000@126.com。

　　[研究项目]本文获得国家自然科学基金面上项目“企业区位再选择与地区生产率提升政策”（批准号：71373189）、国家自然科学基金面上项目“环境规制与‘中国式’产能过剩的防治”（批准号：71873097）、国家社会科学基金项目“基于地方政府激励的统计虚报测度及校正机制研究”（批准号：17BJL070）的资助。

　　Quantitative Measures and Spatial Effects of Amenity in China

　　Abstract: This paper setup a general equilibrium model and measures the regional amenity of 328 cities based on the data of units of prefecture in China from 1998 to 2014 with the method of SDM model to analyze the impact factor and spatial effects from amenity. The result unveils that China’s regional amenity growth is stable, and the southeastern coastal area is superior to the central and western regions. Regional amenity has obvious positive spatial autocorrelation；increase of local output and consumption will help to improve the regional amenity, and the increase of the fixed assets, the local workers and population will reduce the regional amenity, while the indirect effect of space is much greater than the direct effect. Local government should take into account the compensation characteristics of regional amenity when they want to improve the level of regional amenity. That is to say, they need to make measures according to the specific factors that restrict local development of regional amenity.

　　Keywords: Amenity，Utility compensation，Spatial autocorrelation，SDM

　　[责任编辑]赵锐、彭爽

　　5.丁杰：绿色信贷政策、信贷资源配置与企业策略性反应

　　[摘要]本文以2012年2月24日中国银行业监督管理委员会发布的《绿色信贷指引》为准自然实验，采用DID方法实证检验了绿色信贷政策对重污染企业信贷融资的影响，以及重污染企业针对绿色信贷政策的策略性反应。研究结果表明，绿色信贷政策显著抑制了重污染企业的信贷融资。当面临绿色信贷政策带来的信贷融资约束时，重污染企业主要表现出减少资本投资的应激性反应，在调整资本配置效率上的策略性反应不足，因而整体上重污染企业全要素生产率有所降低，绿色信贷政策没有表现出波特效应。分样本检验发现，相对于重污染非国有企业，重污染国有企业在信贷融资上受到更强的抑制，其资本投资的收缩也更为明显。但重污染企业全要素生产率的降低主要来自非国有企业，国有企业没有发生显著变化。以上结论对于更好地发挥绿色信贷政策的资源配置作用具有一定启示意义。

　　[关键词]绿色信贷政策；信贷融资；资本投资；全要素生产率；企业政策反应

　　[作者简介]丁杰，广东财经大学金融学院，邮政编码：510320，电子信箱：disky@163.com。

    [研究项目]本文获得教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“环境规制下的技术进步偏向与绿色全要素生产率研究”（项目编号：17YJC790023）、广州国际金融研究院基金项目“广东绿色金融产品创新研究”（项目编号：16GFR02B08）、全国统计科学研究资助项目“考虑比例数据的面板分位数回归建模及在FDI环境效益评估中的应用研究”（项目编号：2018LY93）的资助。

　　Green Credit Policy, Credit Resources Allocation and Strategic Response of Enterprises

　　Abstract：Taking the “Green Credit Guidelines” issued by China Banking Regulatory Commission in February 24, 2012 as a quasi natural experiment, this paper examines the impact of green credit policy on the credit financing and capital allocation of heavy polluting enterprises by using the difference in difference method. The results show that green credit policy restraining the credit financing of heavily polluting enterprises. When facing the credit financing constraints brought by the green credit policy, the heavy polluting enterprises show the stress response of reducing the capital investment, the strategic response to the adjustment of the capital allocation efficiency is insufficient, the overall efficiency of the heavily polluted enterprises' capital allocation has been reduced. Compared with non-state-owned enterprises, it is found that the state-owned heavy polluting enterprises are more restrained in credit financing, and the contraction of their capital investment is more obvious. However, the reduction of capital allocation efficiency of heavily polluting enterprises is mainly from non-state-owned enterprises, and the capital allocation efficiency of state-owned enterprises has not changed significantly. The above conclusions have some enlightening significance to better play the role of resource allocation of green credit policy.

　　Keywords: Green Credit Policy, Capital Investment, Total Factor Productivity, Difference in Difference

　　[责任编辑]彭爽

　　6.汪奕鹏　刘洋　陈广汉：老龄化背景下生育政策预期的宏观经济效应——基于长期消息冲击的DSGE分析

　　[摘要]本文将生育政策预期冲击设定为长期消息冲击，在DSGE框架下探讨老龄化背景下生育政策预期的宏观经济效应、动态特征及形成原因。研究发现：（1）生育政策预期行为的最优刻画为长期消息冲击设定。（2）预期到的生育政策冲击短期内将对消费和投资分别产生负向和正向影响，但随后分别转变为正向和负向影响。（3）长期来看，生育政策冲击将对宏观经济产生持续稳定的正向影响，但这一结果建立在人口老龄化没有更加严重的前提下。（4）生育政策预期有助于降低经济“急刹车”的可能性。上述结论为人口老龄化加深背景下我国政府制定更加有效的生育政策提供了重要的参考依据。

　　[关键词]人口老龄化；生育政策预期；长期消息冲击；DSGE

　　[作者简介]汪奕鹏，中山大学港澳珠江三角洲研究中心、粤港澳发展研究院，邮政编码：510275，电子信箱：wangyp27@mail2.sysu.edu.cn；刘洋、陈广汉，中山大学港澳珠江三角洲研究中心、粤港澳发展研究院，邮政编码：510275。

　　[研究项目]本文受到国家社会科学基金青年项目“新时代立足教育层面扩大中等收入群体的对策研究”（项目编号：18CJY011）的资助。

　　The Macroeconomic Impacts of Birth Policy Expectation under the Background of Aging: DSGE Analysis Based on Long-Run News Shocks

　　Abstract: This paper specifies birth policy expectation shocks as long-run news shocks, studies its macroeconomic impacts, dynamic characteristics and mechanism under the background of aging in a DSGE framework. It finds that: long-run news shock setting can best characterize the birth policy expectation; in the short term, expected birth policy will cause negative impact on consumption and positive impact on investment, but later these impacts will reverse; in the long term, birth policy expectation will cause consistent positive impact on macroeconomy, but the result is based on the premise that population aging does not proceed; birth policy expectation shocks are useful to reduce the possibility of economic “braking”. The above conclusions provide important theoretical supports for government to make more effective birth policy under the background of aging.

　　Keywords: Population Aging, Birth Policy Expectation, Long-Run News Shock, DSGE

　　[责任编辑]惠利、陈永清

　　7.申云　李庆海　杨晶：农业供应链金融信贷的减贫效应研究——基于不同主体领办合作社的实证比较

　　[摘要]农业供应链金融对于积极助推金融扶贫，联结小农户与大市场具有重要作用。本文基于农民合作社的视角，以A-F双界线分析法构建农户多维贫困综合指数，采用倾向得分匹配—双重差分法（PSM-DID）比较评估了不同主体领办型农民合作社供应链金融信贷对农户多维贫困状况的影响。研究表明：（1）农户获得农民合作社供应链金融信贷的概率每提高1%，农户多维贫困综合指数和多维贫困阶数下降的概率分别提高8%和10%，减贫效应显著。（2）种养大户、企业和村干部领办型农民合作社供应链金融信贷对纯农型贫困农户均具有显著的减贫效应。（3）农户非农收入占比越高，种养大户和村干部领办型农民合作社供应链金融信贷的减贫效应越低，而企业领办型农民合作社供应链金融信贷的减贫效应越高。因此，因地制宜的创新农民合作社供应链金融信贷产品和模式，加强农民合作社供应链金融信贷中的精准施策，对于提升金融精准扶贫成效尤为关键。

　　[关键词]农民合作社；供应链金融；减贫效应；多维贫困；PSM-DID

　　[作者简介]申云，四川农业大学经济学院，邮政编码：611130，电子信箱：shenyun2014@cqu.edu.cn;李庆海，南京财经大学经济学院，邮政编码：210023，电子信箱：zhongguopai@163.com；杨晶，武汉大学社会保障研究中心，邮政编码：430072，电子信箱：wuhan_yangjing@whu.edu.cn。

　　[研究项目]本文得到教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国扶贫战略研究”（项目批准号：16JJD840007）和四川省科技厅软科学项目“乡村振兴战略下新型农业经营主体融资增信机制研究”（项目批准号：19RKX0123）的资助。

　　The Effect of Poverty Alleviation on Financial Credit of Agricultural Supply Chain：An Empirical Comparison of Cooperatives Based on Different Subjects

　　Abstract: Finance of agricultural supply chain plays an important role in promoting financial poverty alleviation and connecting small peasant households with large markets. Based on farmer cooperatives, this paper constructs a multi-dimensional poverty comprehensive index of peasant household by A-F double-line analysis method. It also uses the PSM-DID method to compare and evaluate the influence of different types of financial credit of farmer cooperative supply chain on multi-dimensional poverty of peasant household. The results show that: if the probability that farmers get financial credit increases 1%, the multi-dimensional poverty comprehensive index and multi-dimensional poverty order would reduce by 8% and 10%. The supply chain financial credit of cooperatives, led by large-scale peasant households, enterprises and village cadres, has significant poverty alleviation effect on pure peasant households. Peasant households who have higher non-agricultural income proportion would have weaker poverty alleviation effect from the supply chain financial credit of cooperatives led by large-scale peasant households and village cadres, while would have stronger effect from the credit of enterprise-led cooperatives. Therefore, both innovating products and modes of supply chain finance of farmer cooperative in line with local conditions and implementing policies accurately are particularly crucial for improving the effectiveness of financial targeted poverty alleviation.

　　Keywords: Farmer Cooperative, Supply Chain Finance, Poverty Alleviation Effect, Multidimensional Poverty, PSM-DID

　　[责任编辑]彭爽

　　8.贾玉成　张诚：国家形象对中国OFDI的影响

　　[摘要]本文基于2006-2014年中国对41个国家的对外直接投资(OFDI)数据，检验了国家形象对OFDI的影响。结果显示，积极国家形象对中国OFDI具有显著正向影响。除国家形象外，相对形象也对OFDI产生影响，具体表现为积极相对形象与OFDI正相关。进一步看，经济受惠度和发展主义调节了国家形象的溢出效应，二者显著扩大了积极国家形象（或积极相对形象）对OFDI的正向溢出效应。替换因变量和使用工具变量法进行的稳健性检验证实了实证结论的有效性。从国家形象视角出发的政策内涵是塑造和提升积极国家形象，以形象“软实力”带动经济“硬实力”发展；坚持以经济建设为中心，实现“硬实力”与“软实力”协同发展。

　　[关键词]国家形象；中国OFDI；经济受惠度；发展主义

　　[作者简介]贾玉成，天津社会科学院城市经济研究所、社会治理研究中心，邮政编码：300191，电子信箱：13802103059@163.com；张诚，南开大学经济学院，邮政编码：300191，电子信箱：abc2022@nankai.edu.cn。

　　[研究项目]本文感谢天津社会科学院京津冀协同发展研究中心项目“京津冀协同发展中开放型经济结构发展战略研究”（项目编号：JJJZX19-08）的资助。

　　Influence of National Image on China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment

　　Abstract: This paper tests the impact of national image on OFDI based on the OFDI data between China and 41 countries from 2006 to 2014. The results show that positive image has a significant positive impact on OFDI. Besides, relative image also has an influence, which is reflected in the positive correlation between positive relative image and OFDI. Furthermore, the degree of economic benefit and developmentalism adjust the spillover effect of national image: they both strengthen the positive spillover effect of positive image (or positive relative image) on OFDI significantly. Finally, the robustness test, substituting dependent variable and using instrumental variable method, confirms the validity of our empirical conclusions. From the perspective of national image, we should shape and improve positive national image, promote economic “hard power” with image “soft power”, make economic development for our central task and let the hard and soft power develop mutually.

　　Keywords: National Image, China’s OFDI, the Degree of Economic Benefit, Developmentalism

　　[责任编辑]彭爽

　　9.全世文：缴税还是捐赠？——环境政策效益评估中的支付工具选择

　　[摘要]在环境政策的效益评估中，采用不同的支付工具得到的评估结果往往存在着显著差异，但是，经济学家关于支付工具效应产生的原因尚存在争议。本文首先为支付工具效应的成因提供了一种理论解释，然后，以北京市大气污染治理为例设计了多个随机的实验组，在调查样本的基础上对比分析了“缴税”和“捐赠”两种支付工具的效益评估结果。分析结果证实了支付工具效应的存在，缺乏结果性承诺的实验设计、民众对政策实施主体的信任度差异以及不认同环境治理责任都会引发支付工具效应。从总体上看，“捐赠”支付工具对实验设计因素更加敏感，而“缴税”支付工具对样本认知更加敏感。本文的研究结论意味着研究者和政策制定者在开展环境政策效益评估时需要谨慎地选择支付工具，不同的支付工具在实现其效度时对实验设计和样本的要求存在差异。

　　[关键词]环境政策；支付工具；选择实验；大气污染；价值评估

　　[作者简介]全世文，中国社会科学院农村发展研究所，邮政编码：100732，电子信箱：quanshiwen@163.com。

　　[研究项目]本文得到中国社会科学院创新工程A类项目“农业农村绿色发展理论与政策研究”（项目编号：2018NFSA01）资助。

　　Tax or Donation? Choice of Payment Vehicles in Environmental Policy Evaluation

　　Abstract: Payment vehicle effect (PVE) in benefit analysis of environmental policy has been extensively found in empirical studies. However, the reason of PVE still remains controversial. This paper first provides a theoretical explanation of PVE from the perspective of strategic behaviors. Taking Beijing’s air pollution control policy as example, this paper designs several random experimental groups, makes a comparative analysis between evaluation results of tax and donation vehicles. The results confirm that inconsequential experimental design, different degree of trust between people and policy implementer, and disidentification of environmental governance responsibility could result in PVE. Generally, donation vehicle is more sensitive to experiment design, while tax vehicle is more sensitive to sample perception. The results imply that when conducting benefit analysis of environmental policies, researchers or policy makers should choose payment vehicle discreetly. Different vehicles require different standards on experimental design and sample to achieve its validity.

　　Keywords: Environmental Policy, Payment Vehicle, Choice Experiment, Air Pollution, Valuation

　　[责任编辑]陈永清

　　10.康传坤 文强：独生子女与社会经济地位的代际传递

　　[摘要]基于中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）2014年数据，本文实证检验独生子女身份对社会经济地位代际传递的影响。研究发现，父辈社会经济地位对子代社会经济地位具有显著的正向影响，并且独生子女身份会显著强化这一正向影响。上述结论在不同年龄、性别以及城乡群体中均成立，揭示独生子女会降低社会的代际流动性。进一步分析发现，独生子女身份并未强化父辈社会经济地位对子代努力程度的作用，但是显著提高了父辈社会经济地位对子代人力资本和社会资本的正向影响。由此可见，父辈可能帮助独生子女积累更多的人力资本和社会资本，最终抑制代际流动。本文的研究结论不仅有助于思考代际流动性的生成机制，还有助于认识全面二孩政策可能带来的社会收益。

　　[关键词]独生子女；代际流动性；人力资本；社会资本；努力程度

　　[作者简介]康传坤，山东财经大学经济研究中心，邮政编码：250014；文强（通讯作者），厦门大学王亚南经济研究院，邮政编码：361005，电子信箱：durianwen@xmu.edu.cn。

　　[研究项目]本文得到教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“基本养老保险制度对生育意愿的影响：理论机制与实证检验”（项目编号：17YJC840019）的资助。

　　The Only Child and Intergenerational Transmission of Socioeconomic Status

　　Abstract: Based on the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey (CLDS) 2014 database, this paper explores the impact of the only child identity on intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status. We find that the socioeconomic status of elder generations has a positive impact on that of their offspring; the only child identity will significantly enhance this impact. This impact is widespread among different groups (e.g., age, gender and residence), which indicates that the only child will reduce intergenerational social mobility. Further analyses show that the identity of the only child doesn’t strengthen the impact of socioeconomic status of elder generations on their offspring’s effort. However, it significantly improves the positive impact on human capital as well as social capital of their offspring. These findings indicate that elder generations may help their only child to accumulate human capital and social capital and eventually reduce intergenerational mobility. These findings can not only shed light upon the underlying mechanism of intergenerational mobility, but also help us understand the potential social benefit of universal two-child policy.

　　Keywords:The Only Child, Intergenerational Mobility, Human Capital, Social Capital, Degree of Effort

　　[责任编辑]惠利、陈永清